Who controls advanced chip packaging and high-bandwidth memory?
TSMC controls advanced chip packaging through its CoWoS lines, and Nvidia reportedly holds more than half of that capacity for 2026. Three companies control high-bandwidth memory: SK hynix, with about 50 percent of revenue in the second quarter of 2026, Samsung with about 33 percent, and Micron with about 18 percent.
Capacity and share figures are industry estimates reported in the press, not company disclosures. Data as of 2026-11-05.
High-bandwidth memory revenue share
| Company | 2025 (IDC) | Q1 2026 (Counterpoint) | Q2 2026 (Counterpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | 63.2% | 58% | 50% |
| Samsung | 19.3% | 21% | 33% |
| Micron | 17.4% | 21% | 18% |
From different estimators, as compiled by Silicon Analysts. Rounded figures may not sum to 100. Silicon Analysts, 2026-08-28
Packaging: TSMC first, then its partners
Packaging joins an AI chip to its memory. TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is projected to rise from about 70,000 wafers in 2025 to 130,000 to 140,000 by the end of 2026, with demand still running about 20 percent above supply. Nvidia has reportedly reserved 800,000 to 850,000 wafers for 2026, more than half of the year's capacity. TrendForce, 2026-08-05
TSMC is expanding the outsourcing of one step to outside packagers including ASE. ASE, Amkor and SPIL have long made a later stage under TSMC licenses. TrendForce, 2026-08-05 Lead times for CoWoS run 52 to 78 weeks. Silicon Analysts, 2026-06-16 Nvidia has also signed $3 billion of agreements with Amkor, including prepayments. Amkor Technology, 2026-10-21 A $2 billion deal has GlobalFoundries making silicon interposers, a CoWoS component, in New York, ramping in 2028. Manufacturing Dive, 2026-10-08
Memory: three suppliers with pricing power
SK hynix's lead is narrowing as Samsung returns, though UBS projects it at about 70 percent of the HBM4 supply for Nvidia's Rubin platform. Silicon Analysts, 2026-08-28 SK hynix says its HBM and other DRAM are sold out through 2029 and that long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027 and 2028 capacity. It reported about an 80 percent operating margin in the third quarter of 2026. The Korea Times, 2026-10-28 TrendForce, 2026-10-28
Micron can meet only 50 to 67 percent of key customers' medium-term demand and has signed $100 billion of minimum commitments through 2030. Tech Times, 2026-10-01 Samsung's profit was lifted by HBM4 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin, and it is the sole HBM4 source for AMD's MI455X. Money Today, 2026-10-29 TrendForce, 2026-03-19 China's CXMT is pushing into HBM3E, reportedly at about a 20 percent yield. Seoul Economic Daily, 2026-10-28
Buyers are paying to secure supply
Nvidia's supply commitments reached $279 billion in July 2026, up from $119 billion a quarter earlier, which it attributed mainly to memory. The Motley Fool via Nasdaq.com, 2026-08-27 TSMC's CEO said in October that AI demand is far above what the company can supply. CRN Asia, 2026-10-15
Our read
This section is our judgment, kept separate from the sourced record above.
Control here runs in two directions. TSMC and the memory makers decide how many AI chips can exist, and Nvidia, by holding the largest allocation, decides how many of them are its own. Custom chips from Google, Amazon and Meta compete for what remains.
This is the tightest gate in the stack for 2027. New US supply arrives in 2028, so we do not expect packaging to loosen before then.
What would change this answer
- New share estimates as HBM4 overtakes HBM3E
- TSMC's capacity and capital spending plans
- Whether Samsung keeps gaining share
- CXMT's yields